Strategy update: Focus on the labor market, consumption, and rental prices
A look at the US in June 2023 – what drives employment, spending, and housing costs?
Strong labor market
The US labor market remains a driving force: around 253,000 new jobs were created in April, spread across many sectors. This is well above the level needed to keep the unemployment rate at its very low level. Skills shortages in some areas are also driving up wages.
Consumption remains robust
Despite price increases for everyday products – Coca-Cola (+9%), Mondelez (+16%) and Unilever (+10%) – Americans continue to consume at a steady rate. Retail sales are well above pre-pandemic levels. Since consumption accounts for around 70% of the US economy, it is currently ensuring stable growth forecasts.
Rental prices as drivers of inflation
Housing costs have an enormous impact on the consumer price index in the US: accommodation accounts for around 35% of total inflation and 40% of core inflation. Rents are currently rising by over 8% per annum and are unlikely to fall significantly until 2024 at the earliest. This means they remain a key factor in the further development of inflation.
