Strategy Update: February 2026
Private Markets for Everyone—Or Just a Dream?
What Private Investors Really Need to Know
REVIEW
THE FINANCIAL MARKETS IN JANUARY
January 2026 marked a dynamic start to the new stock market year, although with distinctly fragmented developments. Significant differences emerged between regions, sectors, and individual securities. While the upward trend in the US continued, supported by stable economic data and solid corporate earnings, the previously dominant leadership position of individual megacaps lost relative strength. The beginning earnings season intensified this selective market reaction.
At software company Microsoft, growth remained robust, but cloud growth showed slight signs of fatigue, while simultaneously announcing high investments in AI infrastructure and data centers. The market reacted sensitively to rising capital requirements and potential margin pressure, which led to a share price decline of nearly 10% on the reporting day. This example underscores that for highly valued securities, solid figures alone are insufficient if growth expectations do not continue to increase. In parallel, a clear rotation was observable in the technology sector. While the so-called Magnificent Seven lost relative momentum, storage and semiconductor values came more into focus. Memory chips are considered a central infrastructure component of the next AI phase. This suggests that the AI theme is increasingly spreading along the entire value chain and is no longer concentrated solely on a few platform companies.
This fragmentation was also evident in the Swiss and European stock markets. The SMI moved only slightly in January overall, yet the range of individual securities was extraordinarily large. On the losers‘ side were Logitech with approximately -16% and Richemont with about -13% since the start of the year, while on a monthly basis ABB was able to gain around +12% and Swisscom around +10%. In the Euro Stoxx 50, the bandwidth even ranged from -18% for SAP to +29% for ASML. In the commodities sector, the surge in precious metals continued. Gold soared from one record high to the next in January. Despite profit-taking toward month-end, gold remained clearly in positive territory (+18%). Silver (+44%) also showed a very strong, albeit significantly more volatile, performance.
Additional nervousness in emerging markets came from Indonesia. The prospect of a possible downgrade from an emerging market to a frontier market by MSCI put the local stock market under pressure. On the currency side, the Swiss franc once again proved strong, further reinforcing headwinds for export-oriented companies. Simultaneously, the US dollar remained weak, causing the euro to tend back toward 1.20 USD at times. The US Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged at the expected range of 3.50% to 3.75%, as anticipated. The communication confirmed a continuation of the rate pause and emphasized the data-dependent monetary policy course.
At the start of the year, the WEF in Davos also came into focus and underscored Switzerland‘s role as a neutral dialogue and economic hub from a Swiss perspective. Overall, January 2026 displayed a market environment characterized by dynamism but also increasing differentiation. For investors, this means an environment in which risk awareness becomes increasingly important.
OUTLOOK
GRADUAL PARADIGM SHIFT: THE NEW WORLD ORDER IS QUIETLY TAKING SHAPE
The world seems to be coming apart at the seams if one follows the daily news. Geopolitical tensions dominate reporting, international conflicts demand attention, and apparent uncertainty lurks everywhere. Yet anyone who takes the trouble to look beyond this wall of noise discovers a thoroughly positive macroeconomic environment. § The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of 3.1 percent for 2026. That is not spectacular, but it is solid and stable. While Europe and Switzerland continue to languish in a phase of stagnation, the economic reality presents itself as more differentiated than blanket pessimism would suggest. The USA is growing at approximately 2.1 to 2.5 percent—exactly at the level of its potential growth. The real growth engines lie elsewhere: in Asia, where dynamism remains unbroken, and on Europe‘s periphery, where countries like Spain boast impressive growth forecasts.
Inflation expectations are approaching the central banks‘ target range. This concretely means that five of the ten largest economic regions will likely not change their interest rates—including Switzerland and the eurozone. New Zealand and Japan will raise rates, while the United Kingdom, Norway, and the USA are likely to cut. A stimulative monetary policy environment is emerging— an environment that gives companies and investors room to breathe.
The state of the American labor market is more treacherous than traditional metrics suggest. Consumption in the USA bears the burden of economic growth, and employee pension contributions crucially support the stock market and its structure. The Trump administration is significantly curtailing immigration, and this is precisely where the pitfall lies. Classical indicators such as nonfarm payrolls are becoming increasingly unreliable because shrinking migration requires fewer new jobs. The focus should therefore shift to the unemployment rate—and this has risen remarkably in recent months, albeit from a low level. Demand for new workers is declining, and labor market survey sentiment is deteriorating. Two powerful trends from the previous year are continuing. The US dollar is weakening, and with this development, the price of the yellow precious metal rises inexorably. Gold fascinates the markets, despite fluctuations and short-term declines. Yet beneath this short-term turbulence, a structural force is at work that is becoming increasingly evident.
Countries with significant natural resource reserves— mostly emerging markets—are no longer willing to exchange the natural resources they have painstakingly earned for US dollars and thereby also finance the chronic budget deficit of the United States. A paradigm shift is taking place, not loudly and dramatically, but gradually, almost imperceptibly. Over the coming decades, these countries will gradually distance themselves from the US dollar. It is not a revolution, but a quiet shift in global power relations. Whoever understands this process sees behind the daily headlines the long-term reordering of the world.
FOCUS
PRIVATE MARKETS FOR EVERYONE—OR JUST A DREAM?
WHAT PRIVATE INVESTORS REALLY NEED TO KNOW
The Old Investment World No Longer Works. Private Investors Are Fleeing Classical Investments for Private Markets—$4 Trillion by 2030. But Beware: Illiquidity, Opaque Fees, and Systemic Risks Lurk. A Strategy Isn‘t Optional—It‘s a Matter of Survival. While large institutions retain their interest income, the private investor pays taxes on it. After deductions, little often remains from the already meager returns. The consequence is predictable: millions of investors are fleeing classical bonds.
While institutional investors already have 27% of their assets invested in private markets, private investors have only 6%. Partners Group calculates: over the next ten years, private investors will increase their private market investments by 15–20% per year. Institutional investors, by contrast, will increase by only 5–10%. Private investors are becoming the growth driver—not by accident, but out of economic necessity. The old investment world no longer works. Private markets are the new answer. However, investors should understand the risks and challenges of this asset class precisely.
SEMI-LIQUID FUNDS: SOLUTION OR HIDDEN TIME BOMB?
Private markets tie up capital for years. The solution: semi-liquid funds from which money can be withdrawn monthly. This business is exploding: by 2030, according to Deloitte, it should reach $4 trillion—twelve times more than today. Why this growth? There are numerically 28 times more private than publicly listed companies. Companies today remain private on average for over 14 years; previously it took only 6 years on average until going public. Regulators are loosening regulations, and technology is making private assets tradable for the first time. Fund managers are also earning better returns, which provides an additional incentive.
The problem: „liquidity mismatch.“ Investors can request their money back monthly, but the underlying investments are locked up for 7–10 years. Moreover, daily valuations are hardly possible with private assets—a potential conflict of interest for managers. Semi-liquid funds are not new. What is new, however, is the high investment volume. 5 | Eriya Strategy Update February 2026 Source: Survista Financial Advisors So far, there are no empirical data on how funds with $4 trillion in assets will behave in a market crisis. This could become a systemic risk for the entire financial system.
PRIVATE MARKETS REQUIRE STRATEGY —NOT GUT FEELING
Compared to liquid financial markets, private markets suffer from a lack of information. Reliable data are expensive and difficult to obtain. The consequence: investors can barely compare funds. New manager opportunities often arise from private networks—without thorough comparison. Many private investors end up in venture capital funds without knowing that selection and market access are decisive here.
The real problem runs deeper: many private investors invest strategically haphazardly in private markets. No clear allocation between private equity, private debt, or other sub-classes. No distinction between venture capital, growth, or buyout strategies. No diversification across different vintages. This is fatal. With private market investments, you cannot time entries and exits. The only protection against bad market timing is diversification— across multiple years and different funds. Without strategy, private markets become gambling rather than investing.
THE HIDDEN ADMINISTRATIVE NIGHTMARE
The private markets industry continues to demand exorbitant fees: „2% + 20%.“ This means 2% in fees on committed capital per year, plus 20% of profits. These costs significantly eat into returns. In principle, this fee burden should be justified by an „illiquidity premium.“ Private investors pay premium fees because they cannot quickly withdraw their money. In return, they should receive higher returns. Yet this is precisely where the problem emerges. This premium is becoming smaller—in some cases it has already turned negative. Investors pay premium fees but receive no premium returns in exchange. This means private markets only make sense if there is no liquid alternative. In other words—only invest if private markets offer something unique that is not available elsewhere. Otherwise, you pay extra for illiquidity instead of benefiting from it.
DIE VERSTECKTE VERWALTUNGSHÖLLE
The everyday challenges of private markets are massively underestimated. Private market funds report at different times, in different formats, with different valuation methods. Creating a consolidated overview sounds simple but is a challenge. Anyone holding multiple funds faces a mountain of documents that do not align with each other.
Only a few funds offer tax reporting for Swiss private investors. This means the investor must themselves explain to the tax authorities which income arose where. Errors in taxation burden returns or lead to unwanted problems with authorities. Subscription documents and Know-Your-Customer documents can be several hundred pages long. Keeping track is difficult to impossible.
CONCLUSION
Private markets investments can make sense. But only with careful thought. Anyone investing here needs a well-considered strategy, deep understanding of the risks, and realistic expectations. Otherwise, you pay premium prices for normal or even negative returns. The opportunities are real. But so are the pitfalls.