{"id":8783,"date":"2025-12-08T13:50:06","date_gmt":"2025-12-08T12:50:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eriya.ch\/?p=8783"},"modified":"2025-12-17T14:41:55","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T13:41:55","slug":"strategy-update-december-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eriya.ch\/en\/strategy-update-december-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategy Update December 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Strategy Update: December 2025<\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n

How Apple Became Safer Than the USA<\/span><\/h1>\n

[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=”.vc_custom_1754423773672{margin-bottom: 50px !important;}”][vc_column][vc_btn title=” Prefer to read it as a PDF? Download here.” style=”flat” shape=”square” color=”default” size=”lg” align=”center” i_align=”right” i_icon_fontawesome=”fa fa-regular fa-file-pdf” css=”” add_icon=”true” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Feriya.ch%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2025%2F12%2FStrategie-Update-Dez-2025.pdf|target:_blank|”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=””]<\/p>\n

REVIEW<\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n

THE FINANCIAL MARKETS IN NOVEMBER<\/span><\/h4>\n

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The days leading up to Nvidia\u2018s quarterly earnings at the end of November were tense. For days, headlines dominated the news warning of an AI bubble. Technology stocks plummeted, investors sold in panic. Then came the release: Nvidia\u2018s numbers turned out solid, with revenue four percent above expectations. For a brief moment, this brought calm to the markets \u2013 but it proved to be nothing more than a flash in the pan. The violent price swings demonstrated that investors are taking the growing risks seriously. After the rapid rally, a shift in thinking appeared to have occurred. Many preferred to take early profits off the table \u2013 a sign of caution that is healthy for the markets. Shortly thereafter came the next blow. Meta is examining the use of Google\u2018s AI chips in its own data centers \u2013 a direct attack on Nvidia. Simultaneously, Google announced Gemini 3, meant to leave ChatGPT behind. The decisive factor: Gemini 3 uses Google\u2018s Tensor Processing Units instead of expensive Nvidia chips. It was a shock to the markets.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Google\u2018s TPUs are more cost-effective and specifically developed for machine learning. However, they are specialists, while Nvidia\u2018s chips are generalists. Nvidia processors power gaming graphics, calculate complex renderings, and can be flexibly deployed for any AI model. TPUs work brilliantly in the AI sector but are less universally applicable. Nvidia remains the Swiss Army knife of the chip industry \u2013 yet the pressure is mounting. Switzerland and the United States have reached agreement in their trade dispute \u2013 a major relief for the Swiss economy, as Federal Councillor Guy Parmelin emphasizes. American punitive tariffs are dropping from 39 to 15 percent, affecting roughly forty percent of Swiss exports. In return, the Swiss economy commits itself to investing two hundred billion dollars in the United States by the end of 2028 \u2013 primarily in pharmaceuticals and mechanical engineering. Companies like Stadler and Pilatus have already announced new production sites.<\/p>\n

Yet the relief is provisional. The agreement is merely non-binding \u2013 a legally binding treaty must still receive parliamentary approval. The greatest problem: the trade balance. The United States expects Switzerland to reduce its deficit, but Switzerland has only committed itself to making efforts. Moreover, a clear definition of what counts as investment remains absent. Many issues have deliberately been left vague. This makes the coming negotiations risky for Swiss sovereignty.<\/p>\n

What is unfolding in Brazil is more than a setback for the energy transition \u2013 it is a turning point where the world recognizes that the age of beautiful promises is over. Global CO\u2082 emissions reached a record high of 42.2 billion tons in 2025. According to scientists\u2018 calculations, only four years remain to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. Current warming already stands at 1.36 degrees. Despite renewable energy, energy demand is growing faster. China, the largest emitter, is increasing its emissions by 0.4 percent. The United States is raising its emissions by 1.9 percent. A tropical forest fund is supposed to stop deforestation. Yet the numbers reveal: this is not enough.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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OUTLOOK<\/h3>\n

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SWITZERLAND IN BALANCE, USA UNDER PRESSURE \u2013 AND GERMANY NEEDS MORE THAN MONEY<\/span><\/h4>\n

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After weeks of uncertainty, interest rate expectations are slowly settling again and approaching a stable equilibrium. In Switzerland, a clear picture is emerging: the markets do not expect any further interest rate cuts from the Swiss National Bank over the next twelve months. This stability reflects confidence in the central bank\u2018s measured approach and suggests investors believe current rate levels are appropriate.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

In the USA, the situation is considerably less stable. After the end of the government shutdown, American monetary authorities finally have current economic data available again \u2013 and it is weaker than hoped. Bond markets are now pricing in interest rate cuts totalling 0.8%, which means three to four cuts over the next twelve months. Particularly striking: weak economic data is fueling expectations of an interest rate cut as early as December. This rapid repricing demonstrates how fragile market sentiment has become.<\/p>\n

The International Monetary Fund sees Germany at a turning point. A reform of the debt brake could give the economy momentum \u2013 but only if the money is used correctly. After two years of recession, the IMF expects only 0.2% growth in 2025. But 2026 should bring 1.0%, and 2027 around 1.5%. Additional government spending on infrastructure and the federal armed forces could enable this upturn. However, the IMF warns against missteps. Germany needs genuine structural reforms: more digitalization, better startup incentives, less bureaucracy. Money alone will not save the German economy. In the USA, inflation pressure remains stubborn. No matter where you look \u2013 headline inflation, core inflation, producer prices, or money supply growth (M2) \u2013 all indicators tell the same story: inflation is significantly above the target two percent mark. It is a broad, persistent phenomenon that simply will not ease. For the Federal Reserve, this becomes a problem. While markets expect interest rate cuts, these data signals the opposite: inflation has not yet been defeated.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2018s tariff policy has left barely any traces on corporate profits so far. American households are investing significantly less money in renovations, new equipment, and intellectual property. Everyday consumption remains stable at current levels \u2013 for now. However, this divergence between shrinking investments and stable consumption is a classic warning signal. It suggests that uncertainty is growing among consumers. If households begin to cut future spending while still consuming today, consumer confidence will fall. This could mark the beginning of the end of robust consumption \u2013 and thus a serious problem for the US economy.<\/p>\n

Nothing new is the central role of tech companies. They are carrying the entire index. Profit margin expectations for tech are significantly higher than all other industries. Investors are paying higher valuations for this dominance. This reveals an uncomfortable truth: the future profitability of tech companies is non-negotiable. Without continued exceptional performance from this sector, broader market valuations face significant pressure.<\/p>\n

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FOCUS<\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n

HOW APPLE BECAME SAFER THAN THE USA<\/span><\/h4>\n

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Our states are spending money they do not have \u2013 and for 25 years it has been getting worse. While debt mountains grow, something bizarre is happening: some companies are suddenly more trustworthy than their own countries. What this means for your investments \u2013 and why the old security no longer works \u2013 you will learn in this article.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Nobody wants to talk about it. Or perhaps few dare to say it out loud: our states are losing the ground beneath their feet. While generations of politicians hold out their hands without ever closing them, the debt burden grows every year by millions, billions, trillions. The bill will come due eventually \u2013 everyone knows that. Only not when. And perhaps not for us, but for our children. For a long time, an iron rule applied in financial markets: government bonds are the safest investment imaginable. Safer than corporate bonds, safer than stocks. Yet this certainty is developing deep cracks. Growing debt mountains damage not only the economy but also change how safe government bonds really are. They lose their halo, and suddenly some corporate bonds no longer appear so risky. An uncomfortable truth becomes visible: the old promise no longer works.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GOVERNMENT BUDGETS<\/p>\n

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Twenty-five years ago, the global government debt of industrialised nations compared to economic output (GDP) was around 70%. Today, a quarter century later, it stands at over 110%. Politicians and parties came and went during this time \u2013 the debt mania, however, remained. Admittedly, there are significant regional differences in how heavily indebted each country is. Switzerland (37%) and Germany (64%) show relatively low debt ratios. Although a debt brake is not only positive \u2013 especially when investments in a country\u2018s digitalization loom. The development of government debt for superpowers USA (122%), China (88%), and Japan (236%) seems endless. Also because budget deficits continue to exist or will even increase in the future. Even tariff revenues of around USD 30 billion per month (at current tariff rates) will improve the USA\u2018s deficit of USD 150 billion per month only marginally. On the contrary, tariffs make imports more expensive and will likely reduce tax revenues in the medium term.<\/p>\n

There is also little improvement on the spending side. Since the pandemic, government spending has increased significantly \u2013 in the form of loans, energy expenditures, defence spending, and inflation relief. After the inflation surge following the pandemic, interest rates were raised as a countermeasure in many places. But this also increased the interest burden significantly. These higher refinancing costs enter state budgets at different speeds due to different refinancing needs. In the USA, interest costs are now the third largest budget item and are expected to double again by 2035. In other countries like China, this development will follow but will not be averted. This leaves states with less and less room in terms of budget.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

CORPORATE DEBT<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

35 trillion dollars. That is how much companies owe worldwide through bonds. For 22 years, this number has grown continuously \u2013 only in 2022 did it slow briefly. Since 2008, the burden has increased by 62 percent when adjusted for inflation. The USA dominates with USD 11.4 trillion in corporate bonds \u2013 over 60% come from industrial companies and technology conglomerates, not banks. China follows with USD 6.7 trillion, where financial companies carry over 60% of the debt. That is the opposite of the American model. Europe has its own pattern: in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, the banking sector owes over 70%. In 24 of 38 OECD countries, the financial sector dominates with over 60%. That is a European phenomenon.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Particularly alarming is the ratio to economic power. In nine OECD countries, corporate debt exceeds the 50% mark of GDP. Since 2008, corporate debt ratios in 30 of 38 OECD countries have risen by an average of 9%. Only companies in Iceland, Ireland, and Portugal achieved substantial debt reduction. Emerging markets show a different picture: among the 20 largest, only corporate debt in China exceeds 15% of GDP. So far, no clear winner can be identified between states and companies \u2013 both have increased their debt. Although the absolute amounts and comparison to economic output are significantly more negative for government debt. Also because of the \u201eold\u201c narrative that government bonds are the safest investment.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Compared to states, companies show a significantly smaller increase in refinancing costs. Almost 50% of all bonds worldwide cost 4% interest or less. The reason: long maturities and fixed interest rates protect old debt. This protection is historical. In 2000, only 10% of investment-grade bonds had such low interest rates. A complete upheaval in two decades. But new bonds are issued at significantly higher interest rates. Investment- grade companies pay an average of 3.5%, compared to just 0.9% in 2021. In a world with high debt levels and large refinancing needs, interest rates could remain elevated longer. Then the bill becomes ruthless: old debt matures, new debt expensive. The increase in total debt could accelerate \u2013 and suddenly the hidden burden becomes visible.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

THE SECRET WINNERS<\/p>\n

When companies borrow money, they pay higher interest rates than states. The reason is simple: they are riskier. A state can, if necessary, raise taxes \u2013 a company can go bankrupt. But government budgets have come under massive pressure in recent years. The result: a bizarre market situation. Today there are companies that borrow money more cheaply than the state itself. They pay less interest \u2013 no more. The normal risk premium has mutated into a risk discount. In Europe, the phenomenon appears among heavyweights like Louis Vuitton, L\u2018Oreal, Airbus, and AXA. These top companies sometimes pay less interest than France itself. Why? Because investors in uncertain times prefer to invest in safe, familiar names \u2013 and states increasingly appear questionable as borrowers. In the USA, it is a different story: there, the tech giants dominate this club. Apple, Microsoft, and Co. are ideal borrowers \u2013 hardly any debt, fat profits. They can practically borrow money at bargain prices.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

SURVISTA<\/p>\n

Government budgets are becoming increasingly fragile \u2013 and nobody seems to really want to solve the problem. Why? Because debt reduction is uncomfortable. Fewer expenses means: cuts to pensions, infrastructure, education. That costs votes and affects us all in our personal daily lives. Populism makes it even worse. Every party prefers to promise more rather than less. Who dares to say before an election: \u201eWe must save\u201c? That is political suicide. So the most obvious thing happens: debt continues to grow \u2013 and markets start to notice.<\/p>\n

The obvious idea: out of government bonds, into corporate bonds. But wait \u2013 it is not that simple. The problem: corporate bonds are already expensive. Valuations are at record levels \u2013 sometimes even more extreme than stocks. Of course, theoretically the interest spreads could fall further. But realistically? Hardly likely.<\/p>\n

And more importantly: at today\u2018s interest rates, almost all of the return comes from the base rate \u2013 that is, from government bonds. The corporate risk premium? A drop in the bucket. You are simply not paid for the extra risk. But here is the catch \u2013 and it is an important one: yes, many companies are financially healthier than their states. That is true. But the comparison ends there: a state can, in the worst case, print money and settle its debts \u2013 with unpleasant side effects like inflation, of course. Companies? They do not have this back door. When the money is gone, it is gone.<\/p>\n

 [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row css=”.vc_custom_1754423740115{margin-bottom: 50px !important;}”][vc_column offset=”vc_col-lg-offset-1 vc_col-lg-10″][vc_column_text css=””] Strategy Update: December 2025How Apple Became Safer Than the USA [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=”.vc_custom_1754423773672{margin-bottom: 50px !important;}”][vc_column][vc_btn title=” Prefer to read it as a PDF? Download here.” style=”flat” shape=”square” color=”default” size=”lg” align=”center” i_align=”right” i_icon_fontawesome=”fa fa-regular fa-file-pdf” css=”” add_icon=”true” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Feriya.ch%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2025%2F12%2FStrategie-Update-Dez-2025.pdf|target:_blank|”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=””] REVIEWTHE FINANCIAL MARKETS IN NOVEMBER [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=”.vc_custom_1752586437367{margin-bottom: 80px !important;}”][vc_column offset=”vc_col-lg-offset-1 vc_col-lg-10″][vc_column_text…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":8769,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-strategy-updates-en","category-46","description-off"],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nStrategy Update December 2025 - 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