{"id":8754,"date":"2025-11-04T15:55:06","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T14:55:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eriya.ch\/strategy-update-november-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-04T16:37:15","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T15:37:15","slug":"strategy-update-november-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eriya.ch\/en\/strategy-update-november-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategy Update November 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1754423740115{margin-bottom: 50px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column offset=&#8221;vc_col-lg-offset-1 vc_col-lg-10&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">Strategy Update: November 2025<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"s40\">We did the math: USD 10 Billion in Losses, USD 500 Billion Valuation, 20 Nuclear Reactors \u2013 AI Breakthrough or Madness? <\/span><\/h1>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1754423773672{margin-bottom: 50px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column][vc_btn title=&#8221; Prefer to read it as a PDF? Download here.&#8221; style=&#8221;flat&#8221; shape=&#8221;square&#8221; color=&#8221;default&#8221; size=&#8221;lg&#8221; align=&#8221;center&#8221; i_align=&#8221;right&#8221; i_icon_fontawesome=&#8221;fa fa-regular fa-file-pdf&#8221; css=&#8221;&#8221; add_icon=&#8221;true&#8221; link=&#8221;url:https%3A%2F%2Feriya.ch%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2025%2F11%2FStrategie-Update-Nov-2025_DE.pdf|target:_blank|&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">REVIEW<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"highlight-subtitle\">THE FINANCIAL MARKETS IN OCTOBER<\/span><\/h4>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1752586437367{margin-bottom: 80px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column offset=&#8221;vc_col-lg-offset-1 vc_col-lg-10&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Earnings season is in full swing and American companies are surprising with impressive figures. 87% of large corporations are reporting profits above expectations \u2013 a quota that hasn\u2018t been achieved since 2001. The picture for revenues is similar, with 83% positive surprises. Profits are growing by 9.2% in the third quarter compared to the previous year, which already means the ninth consecutive quarter with profit growth. Also unusual is the fact that profit expectations have been adjusted downward only minimally this year. Particularly remarkable is that profit margins remain stable at 12.8% despite concerns about tariffs and rising costs \u2013 that\u2018s better than the five-year average. The IT sector leads growth at 22%, driven by the semiconductor industry with 48% growth. The financial sector follows with 20% growth across all sub-sectors. The energy sector is suffering from falling crude oil prices and reports a profit decline of -4%. For stock valuation, it should be noted that the price-earnings ratio at 22.7 is significantly above the historical average. For the coming quarters, analysts expect sustained growth of 7-10%. Economic momentum thus seems to be accelerating rather than weakening.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This raises the question of why the American central bank is additionally stimulating the economy with further interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has lowered its key interest rate by 0.25% to 3.75-4.0%. This is the second rate reduction this year. However, Fed Chief Jerome Powell quickly dampened hopes. Another interest rate cut in December is \u201enot certain,\u201c he said unambiguously. Powell\u2018s caution is due to the US government shutdown, which is blocking important economic data. The official employment reports are particularly missing. Without these, the central bank is driving in the fog, as Powell himself said. The Fed is observing a slight deterioration in the labor market, but experts expect significantly worse figures. Large corporations like UPS, Amazon, and Intel have recently announced tens of thousands of layoffs. Inflation is also a concern. Consumer prices have risen to 3.0%, moving away from the 2% target. This double uncertainty means that a December rate cut is not guaranteed. Even bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach estimates the odds at only around 50%. From December, the Fed will no longer reduce its balance sheet but will instead reinvest in bonds. This additional liquidity could support bond markets.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Between August and October 20, gold reached its record high of 4,381 USD per ounce. But then came a sharp correction. On Monday, the price was back below the 4,000 USD mark. Gold demand has never been higher in a quarter than between July and September. It stood at 1,313 tons and was 44% higher in dollar terms than in the previous year. The main driver was FOMO \u2013 \u201eFear of missing out.\u201c Investors bought gold out of fear of missing something. ETF inflows rose by 134% compared to the same period in the previous year. Up to the record high, the gold price increase was the fourth-strongest increase in gold price history. Experts consider a drastic correction like in the 1980s to be unlikely and expect the gold price to exceed the 5,000 USD mark. Chinese investors continue to form the most important buyer group.<\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column css_animation=&#8221;fadeIn&#8221; offset=&#8221;vc_col-lg-offset-1 vc_col-lg-10&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">OUTLOOK<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"highlight-subtitle\">THE RATE CUT PARADOX: WHY AMERICAN MONETARY POLICY COULD BACKFIRE<\/span><\/h4>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1752586443552{margin-bottom: 80px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column css_animation=&#8221;fadeIn&#8221; offset=&#8221;vc_col-lg-offset-1 vc_col-lg-10&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Autumn brings more than just falling leaves. Now, as the cold approaches and winter casts its shadows, it\u2018s time to sit down consciously and critically examine your own wealth allocation. This annual stocktaking is not a ritual of fear, but rather an opportunity for clarity. It\u2018s about readjusting your strategic asset allocation while confronting a fundamental question that sits at the core of every investment decision: What return do I actually need from a particular asset class to justify the associated risk?<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This consideration leads us directly to the concept of risk premium\u2014that difference between the expected return of a risky investment and a safe investment. Anyone investing in stocks should know what additional return they receive for the higher risk. Anyone engaged in bonds should understand whether the interest income compensates for default risk.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Autumn invites us to perform precisely this recalculation and thus approach the coming months with strategy instead of hope. Risk premiums help challenge your gut feeling with naked numbers. The risk premium is thus not merely a mathematical quantity. It is a protective mechanism against our own cognitive distortions \u2014 a tool that holds our gut feeling accountable.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The year 2026 is anything but a uniform narrative about risk premiums. While one asset class breathes a sigh of relief, another is suffocating. While opportunities emerge here, they disappear there. And it is precisely this divergence that forces the attentive investor to challenge his gut feeling through the numbers. Equity risk premiums are on the upswing. In the United States, Asia, and emerging markets, companies are experiencing a quiet profit revolution. Margins are rising, profits are flourishing, and this development is driving risk premiums upward. This is not speculative hope; this is the mathematical reality of the earnings growth model: better profits today justify higher risk premiums tomorrow. Yet the mechanics differ significantly by region. In Europe, Switzerland, and the United States, lower real interest rates act as an additional driver, pushing equity risk premiums above GDP per capita growth. China points to something exciting: profits are returning. This could be a harbinger of higher risk premiums. Japan demonstrates resilience\u2014even rising interest rates couldn\u2018t brake the rally because robust profits played the counterprogram.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Government bonds, meanwhile, are experiencing a quiet resurrection. Coupon yields are finally attractive again and interest rate structures are normalizing. After years in negative territory, risk premiums are climbing back. The central question for every investor: Do rising corporate profits justify the risen stock prices? The numbers say yes. But what if the numbers tell only half the truth \u2013 read more about this in the focus section.<\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column css_animation=&#8221;fadeIn&#8221; offset=&#8221;vc_col-lg-offset-1 vc_col-lg-10&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1754427734630{margin-bottom: 20px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">FOCUS<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"highlight-subtitle\">WE DID THE MATH: USD 10 BILLION IN LOSSES, USD 500 BILLION VALUATION, 20 NUCLEAR REACTORS \u2013 AI BREAKTHROUGH OR MADNESS?<\/span><\/h4>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column offset=&#8221;vc_col-lg-offset-1 vc_col-lg-10&#8243;][vc_column_text css_animation=&#8221;fadeIn&#8221; css=&#8221;&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tech giants are investing more money than they earn, AI startups are burning billions, and a single island determines the future of the global economy. Valuations have reached historic proportions\u201477% of the annual U.S. economic output. Is this justified or are we witnessing the biggest bubble of all time? The AI Revolution: Are we already in a Bubble? The AI revolution is transforming our world as profoundly as the internet once did. On financial markets, technology companies are reaching historic valuations. This raises critical questions: Do these valuations justify future performance? Is market concentration sustainable? Or are we experiencing an AI bubble?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"fancy-title\">MARKET VALUE: WHEN NUMBERS MAKE YOU DIZZY<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The scale is staggering: The 10 largest U.S. companies\u2014 mostly from the tech sector (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Broadcom, Tesla, Berkshire, and Oracle)\u2014together account for about USD 26.9 trillion in market capitalization.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>That equals 77% of the United States\u2019 annual GDP.<\/strong> For comparison: During the tech bubble in 2000, the top 10 U.S. firms represented only 28% of U.S. GDP. Even more extreme is Nvidia: The company alone has a market cap of USD 4.4 trillion\u2014about 15% of U.S. GDP. At the turn of the millennium, Cisco was the largest company, valued at USD 0.5 trillion, just 5% of GDP. Nvidia now carries a 7\u20138% index weight and generates 6\u20137% of all S&amp;P 500 revenues. It is undeniably profitable\u2014 USD 160 billion in annual revenue and USD 100 billion in EBITDA\u2014<strong>but this enormous market power rests on a fragile foundation.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"fancy-title\">EXTREME CONCENTRATION: THE TAIWAN DILEMMA<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nvidia disclosed (on an anonymous basis) that its two largest customers\u2014presumably Foxconn and Quanta\u2014 account for 40% of its revenue. The top six customers make up 80%. Geographically, the concentration is extreme: Nvidia\u2019s top three customers are all Taiwanese manufacturers (Foxconn, Quanta, and Wistron) that use Nvidia chips in their products. This highlights why the U.S. is determined to protect Taiwan from Chinese annexation at all costs.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>The entire Nvidia story rests on a Taiwan dilemma:<\/strong><br \/>\n\u2022 One island (Taiwan)<br \/>\n\u2022 Three main customers (all in Taiwan)<br \/>\n\u2022 One main supplier (TSMC)<br \/>\n\u2022 One prayer that geopolitical tensions stay lower than geological risks<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Why do we focus so much on Nvidia? While the AI industry includes many players\u2014most notably in \u201cAI Compute\u201d like OpenAI, Midjourney, and Anthropic\u2014all of them combined generate less than USD 40 billion in annual revenue and are unprofitable.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Reality: The entire AI ecosystem depends on Nvidia\u2019s profitability.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"fancy-title\">\u201cBURNING MONEY\u201d: WHEN INVESTMENTS EXPLODE<\/p>\n<p>David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital has already warned: The current AI investment boom could become the greatest cash burn since the dot-com era. The figures are truly breathtaking.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tech giants\u2019 CapEx spending has reached historic levels:<\/strong><br \/>\u2022 Microsoft and Google: about 50% of profits on CapEx<br \/>\u2022 Meta, Oracle, Amazon: about 70% (projected)<br \/>\u2022 By 2025: Big Tech could spend up to 130% of profits on CapEx<\/p>\n<p>For comparison: AT&amp;T invested 72% of profits before the telecom bubble, and Exxon spent 65% during the shale boom.<\/p>\n<p><strong>OpenAI is the most extreme example.<\/strong> In 2024, it signed USD 1 trillion worth of compute contracts, giving it access to over 20 gigawatts of computing capacity over the next decade\u2014the equivalent output of 20 nuclear reactors. Each gigawatt of AI compute costs roughly USD 50 billion. The catch: OpenAI currently generates about USD 12 billion in revenue, loses USD 10 billion annually, yet is valued at USD 500 billion. Its contractual obligations far exceed its income.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"fancy-title\">FINANCING: \u201cCREATIVE\u201d MONEY FLOWS<\/p>\n<p>OpenAI already has USD 4 billion in bank debt, plus USD 47 billion in venture capital funding in the past 12 months.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The creative financing doesn\u2019t stop there:<\/strong><br \/>\u2022 Nvidia plans to invest USD 100 billion in OpenAI over 10 years\u2014so OpenAI can buy Nvidia chips.<br \/>\u2022 AMD grants OpenAI warrants to purchase up to 10% of AMD\u2019s shares for just one cent each, while OpenAI buys computing power from AMD.<br \/>\u2022 OpenAI, together with SoftBank and Oracle, launched the \u201cStargate Initiative\u201d\u2014a USD 500 billion project for U.S. AI infrastructure.<br \/>\u2022 Industry insiders warn: \u201cThe company is in a far more capital-intensive business than Google or Microsoft ever were\u2014and it was born without cost discipline.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"fancy-title\">COMPUTE OVERSUPPLY: WHEN REALITY HITS<\/p>\n<p>The situation among the hyperscalers (Oracle, Google, Meta, etc.) is no less concerning.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Problem 1: Limited Ad Revenue<\/strong><br \/>Most revenue still comes from advertising. Ad spending in the U.S. has been stable at 1.5% of GDP (about USD 400 billion). Google alone plans to invest USD 85 billion in 2025. Exponentially growing CapEx cannot be financed by stagnant ad income.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Problem 2: Margin Pressure in Cloud Markets<\/strong><br \/>New competitors like Oracle and specialized \u201cneo-cloud\u201d providers such as CoreWeave undercut prices by up to 40%. A historical parallel: AT&amp;T once had \u201cbetter margins than the drug trade\u201d\u2014until new entrants crashed the market.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The uncomfortable truth:<\/strong> Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are building data centers in advance of actual demand. Each hyperscaler will spend USD 80\u2013120 billion on CapEx in 2025\u2014roughly equal to Amazon Cloud\u2019s total annual revenue.<\/p>\n<p>VC investor Marc Andreessen notes that nearly 50% of U.S. economic growth now comes from tech CapEx.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"fancy-title\">REAL-WORLD PROBLEMS: WHEN THE POWER RUNS OUT<\/p>\n<p><strong>Energy demand is exploding:<\/strong> Data centers already consume 4.5% of total U.S. electricity, projected to reach 9% by 2030. The consequences are severe\u2014according to Bloomberg, electricity prices within 5 km of data centers have risen by 267% on average. A single data center uses 300\u2013400 MW up to 1 GW \u2014 the equivalent to a nuclear reactor. At this scale, today\u2019s power grids would collapse. Building new generation capacity takes years and is highly political. Even basic components like power transformers are becoming scarce. <strong>Extreme electricity price volatility in affected regions will be inevitable.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"fancy-title\">CONCLUSION: THE BUBBLE IS PROBABLY REAL<\/p>\n<p>After analyzing all the numbers, the fact-based conclusion is clear: <strong>We are probably in an AI bubble. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Evidence includes:<br \/>\u2022 <strong>Extreme market concentration<\/strong> beyond any historical precedent<br \/>\u2022 <strong>Only Nvidia is profitable<\/strong>\u2014everyone else is losing money<br \/>\u2022 The entire AI ecosystem depends on one company and one island (Taiwan)<br \/>\u2022 <strong>Unprecedented \u201ccash burn\u201d<\/strong> from CapEx spending<br \/>\u2022 <strong>Massive overcapacity<\/strong> in data centers<br \/>\u2022 <strong>Circular financing<\/strong> without real demand\u2014Nvidia invests USD 100 billion in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy Nvidia chips<br \/>\u2022 <strong>Energy supply and construction resources are finite <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Investor takeaway:<\/strong> Past bubbles show they often last longer than expected. Exiting too early can cost more performance than the eventual crash destroys in value. The best approach: regularly take profits without fully exiting and implement systematic hedging strategies.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"fancy-title\">THE OTHER SIDE: WHY AI MIGHT NOT BE A BUBBLE<\/p>\n<p>There are valid arguments against the bubble thesis. <strong>A crucial difference from the dot-com era:<\/strong> back then, working business models didn\u2019t exist\u2014today, they do. Nvidia already earns USD 100 billion EBITDA, and Microsoft and Google are seeing significant revenue growth from paid AI services. McKinsey estimates USD 13 trillion in additional global GDP by 2030 from measurable productivity gains.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What would need to happen for AI not to be a bubble?<\/strong><br \/>\u2022 Diversification away from Taiwan dependence<br \/>\u2022 ROI increases in traditional industries through AI<br \/>\u2022 More energy-efficient AI technology<br \/>\u2022 Profitable business models for AI startups<\/p>\n<p><strong>The uncomfortable truth:<\/strong> The internet was also a \u201cbubble\u201d\u2014but it still changed the world. Many dot-com companies failed, yet Amazon, Google, and eBay rose from the wreckage.<\/p>\n<p><strong>OUTLOOK:<\/strong> If quantum computers become commercially viable, they could fundamentally redefine technological reality\u2014comparable to the leap from Newtonian mechanics to quantum physics. While AI determines how we work, quantum computing may decide what we can explore at all. For today\u2019s AI leaders and their massive CapEx commitments, that could pose immense long-term pressure.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1754423740115{margin-bottom: 50px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column offset=&#8221;vc_col-lg-offset-1 vc_col-lg-10&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;] Strategy Update: November 2025We did the math: USD 10 Billion in Losses, USD 500 Billion Valuation, 20 Nuclear Reactors \u2013 AI Breakthrough or Madness? [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1754423773672{margin-bottom: 50px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column][vc_btn title=&#8221; Prefer to read it as a PDF? Download here.&#8221; style=&#8221;flat&#8221; shape=&#8221;square&#8221; color=&#8221;default&#8221; size=&#8221;lg&#8221; align=&#8221;center&#8221; i_align=&#8221;right&#8221; i_icon_fontawesome=&#8221;fa fa-regular fa-file-pdf&#8221; css=&#8221;&#8221;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":8736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-strategy-updates-en","category-46","description-off"],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Strategy Update November 2025 - 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